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D.C. Municipal Regulations (Last Updated: September 13, 2017) |
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Title 10. PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT |
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SubTilte 10-A. COMPREHENSIVE PLAN |
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Chapter 10-A2. FRAMEWORK ELEMENT |
Section 10-A215. PROJECTED GROWTH, 2005-2025
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215.1The District’s projections are based on a combination of the regional forecasts, approved and planned development, and land supply estimates. Table 2.2 provides a summary. 215.1
215.2Table 2.2: Population, Household and Job Forecasts, 2005-2025
215.3Because the Census is only taken every 10 years, estimates of population and household growth begin with 2005 “baseline” estimates. These figures are based on the 2000 Census, plus an estimate of net new households and residents added between 2000 and 2005. 215.3
215.4The city’s estimates do not match the U.S. Census estimates, which show a loss of 20,000 residents during the 2000-2005 period. District estimates are based on a series of indicators, such as net housing additions, vacancy rates, school enrollment, IRS tax returns, and utility connections. The Census’ annual estimate is not used as the baseline in part because it has historically underestimated the District’s population.* For example, the annual Census estimate for 1999 was 53,000 people below the actual number reported during the decennial census in 2000. 215.4
215.5Based on building permits, there were 8,100 units added and about 2,100 units demolished between 2000 and 2005, for a net gain of about 6,000 units. Accounting for vacancies, the 2005 household total is estimated at 254,700. Population has been relatively stable and is currently estimated at 576,700. The average household size declined from 2.16 to 2.12 between 2000 and 2005. 215.5
215.6The 2005-2010 growth increment consists of actual projects that are now under construction. This growth will result in a net gain of about 11,000 households and is expected to increase the city’s population to almost 600,000 by the 2010 census. This assumes that household size will stay at 2.12. 215.6
215.7Growth forecasts for 2010-2015 are based on specific projects that are still in the planning stages. About 14,000 households are expected to be added during this period, bringing the city’s population to 630,000 by 2015. 215.7
215.8From 2015 to 2025, much of the District’s growth is expected to occur on the large sites described earlier in this Element. Assuming the pace of growth experienced between 2005 and 2015 is sustained, another 32,000 households will be added. Household size is expected to remain at 2.12, bringing the total population to 698,000. This is approximately the same number of residents the District had in 1973, but residing in about 50,000 more households. 215.8
215.9The biggest unknown in the forecasts is household size. If the District continues to lose families and attract only small one- and two-person households, it may well add 57,000 households in the next 20 years with no gain in population. Household size will only be maintained at its current level if the District retains its families, keeps young professionals in the city as they form families, and provides a healthy environment for new families in its established single family and rowhouse neighborhoods. Indeed, the number of families with children in the District declined from 62,000 in 1990 to 51,000 in 2000, with an attendant drop in citywide household size. 215.9
* In Spring 2006, the District successfully challenged the US Census 2005 population estimate. The Census revised the estimate to 582,000, representing an increase of 10,000 residents since 2000. The District’s official forecasts reflect a lower 2005 household size than was used in the Census challenge (2.12 vs 2.16), and consequently reflect lower baseline figures. 2-18
215.10Other factors affecting population forecasts are housing costs, immigration, and K-12 school quality. Higher housing costs have already caused families to “double up” in some parts of the city, and may result in adult children returning home or living at home longer. Immigration also may drive increases in household sizes, as it has in New York, San Francisco, and other gateway cities. Improvement in the District’s public schools will make the city a more attractive place for families with young children. These forces could offset some of the decline in household size. 215.10
215.11The household and population forecasts suggest that the District of Columbia will capture 10 percent of the region’s growth during 2005-2025. By 2025, the District will represent 11 percent of the region’s population, which is a slightly smaller share than it has today. 215.11
215.12Employment Growth
Employment forecasts are based on estimates from the District Department of Employment Services. The baseline (2005) estimates build on monthly data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dun & Bradstreet, and other sources, with adjustments for self-employment and military personnel. The forecasts from 2005 to 2015 are largely based on actual projects under construction in the city, as well as office, retail, hotel, industrial, and institutional development that is currently planned and proposed. 215.12
215.13Employment Growth
Beyond 2015, the projections presume a continuation of 2000-2015 trends. Continued growth in the service sector is expected, with about 5,000 jobs a year added between 2015 and 2025. Between 2005 and 2025, the District is expected to add 125,000 new jobs, bringing the citywide total to 870,400 jobs. 215.13
215.14Employment Growth
The employment forecasts suggest that the District of Columbia will capture 13 percent of the region’s job growth during 2005-2025. By 2025, the District will have 21 percent of the region’s jobs, which is a slightly smaller share than it has today. 215.14
215.15Translating the Forecasts into Demand for Land
215.16How much land does it take to accommodate 57,000 housing units and 125,000 jobs? The answer depends on the density of new development. Other factors, such as the size of housing units, the types of jobs being created, and the amount of land set aside for parking and open space also weigh in. The diagram at right shows three scenarios. 215.16
215.17The first illustrates the land that would be required for single family homes (at 6 units per acre) and one story campus-style office buildings. About 13,000 acres would be necessary. The second scenario shows land requirements for housing built at row house densities (25 units per acre), with the jobs housed in five story office buildings. About 3,000 acres would be required. The third scenario shows land requirements for housing built at apartment densities of about 125 units per acre, with the jobs housed in ten-story office buildings. Land consumption drops to under 1,000 acres. 215.17
215.18Of course, the diagram simplifies the actual dynamics of how land is used and developed. It also leaves out land that must be set aside for parks, public facilities, and infrastructure. The District expects some combination of high, medium, and low density development during the next 20 years. However, high land costs and the scarcity of land in the city make denser development more likely on most of the remaining vacant sites. 215.18
215.19Growth by Planning Area
Tables 2.3 and 2.4 show where household and job growth is expected to take place within the city over the next 20 years. The estimates reflect the location of planned development projects, vacant and underutilized sites, and Comprehensive Plan land use designations and policies. 215.19
215.20Table 2.3: Projected Distribution of Household Growth by Planning Area 215.20
215.21Table 2.4: Projected Distribution of Job Growth by Planning Area 215.21
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215.22The tables indicate that about 30 percent of the city’s future household growth will occur in Central Washington and along the Lower Anacostia Waterfront. This reflects current and expected development in and around Downtown, the North of Massachusetts Avenue (NoMA) area, the Southwest Waterfront, the Near Southeast, and on large sites such as Poplar Point. Other areas east of the Anacostia River represent about 20 percent of the projected total. The Mid-City and Near North areas also represent a combined total of 20 percent, with most of the gain expected east of 14th Street NW, especially around Howard University, Columbia Heights, and Shaw. Additional data and guidance for each of these areas is provided in the Area Elements of the Comprehensive Plan. 215.22
215.23Employment growth will be concentrated in Central Washington and along the Anacostia River. These two areas are expected to absorb three-quarters of the city’s job growth, principally in places like the South Capitol Street Corridor, the Southeast Federal Center, and the New York Avenue Metro Station area. About five percent of the city’s job growth is projected to take place in Upper Northeast, especially along the New York Avenue corridor. Another eight percent is expected east of the Anacostia River on sites such as St. Elizabeths and the Minnesota Avenue Metro Station Area. The remaining six planning areas represent less than 15 percent of the city’s job growth, most associated with institutional uses and infill office and retail development along corridor streets. 215.23
For more information on employment growth and growth sectors, please refer to the Economic Development Element.
215.24As time unfolds, departures from the District’s forecasts are likely. Future amendments to the Comprehensive Plan may be considered in response to changing trends, new projections, and shifting expectations for the future. 215.24
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